Jeb Bush remains the favorite of traders in the political prediction markets, while Donald Trump is rising high in the polls of the Republican Presidential run for 2016 Elections.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush started his campaign as a frontrunner for the Republican Party nomination, but was quickly replaced by real estate mogul and businessman Donald Trump. Trump has been making headlines with controversial comments and policies aimed at Mexican people being criminals and setting an immigration policy of deportation all illegal immigrants, as well as building a wall on the border between the United States and Mexico.
He has garnered the support of conservatives in the Republican Party, while Jeb Bush is setting a more moderate campaign with proposing a comprehensive immigration campaign, but still latching to the Republican policies of the past and the policies of intervention of his brother, former President George W. Bush. His efforts of rebranding himself with the slogan Jeb! Have done little to shake off the legacy his brother has left.
According to Reuters, the prediction market aggregator PredictWise.com has stated that Bush is given a 40% chance of getting the Republican nomination and is followed by Senator Marco Rubio with 15% and Donald Trump at third place with 14%. PredictWise aggregates half a dozen of the political prediction markets where traders bet on the outcome of an event.
More often the predictions of the trade markets have been more accurate than the national polls and according to Reuters, David Rothschild, an economist and head of the PredictWise said that Bush has been the Republican favorite since last year. He stated “Jeb Bush has been steady at the top at between 45% and 40%, where he is now. He certainly hasn’t fallen off noticeably.”
Various polls show similar results with a distinction on the frontrunner position. Real Clear Politics says that Bush is second with 11% behind Trump’s 22%. A Reuters poll shows Bush making third place and Paddy Power is the favorite with 13/8 odds of getting the nomination. According to the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power’s spokesman, Rory Scott “Jeb Bush has drifted a tiny little bit, probably because of the rise of Trump, but he’s still the favorite and he’s been pretty stable.”
Trump has been rising ever since his announcement and after the primary Republican Debate he rose to second, according to Paddy Power.
Over at the Democrat field, according to PredictWise and Reuters, Hillary Clinton has been the frontrunner for the party’s nomination and has been enjoying support ever since the previous 2012 elections. She has a 72% chance of getting the nomination, followed by Vice President Joe Biden who has 14%.